Preholiday Trading

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The Light Crude Continuous Contract closed at $66.13 a barrel Friday, after hitting an all-time high at $67.95 a barrel earlier in the day. A week from Monday is Labor Day, which marks the end of the summer driving season. Consequently, I believe, oil hit a short-term top Friday or will top next week.

Recent economic data show persistently high oil prices, along with higher interest rates, are slowing U.S. economic growth. Durable Goods Orders fell about 5% last month, and Walmart announced sales will be lower than expected. However, business inventories are lean. A slower economy will lower demand for oil.

The SPX daily chart below shows an orderly pullback in August. Currently, SPX is oversold enough to bounce into the Labor Day holiday. Major support is around 1,200, i.e. the 200 day MA, and Price-by-Volume bar. There are several major resistance levels working together to create strong resistance, i.e. the 10, 20, and 50 day MAs, the Parabolic SAR sell signal (red dots), and the Price-by-Volume bar, all between 1,220 and 1,225.

There's typically a bullish bias the week before a holiday, and over the first few days of a new month. However, the market has been selling into weekends (and into rallies last week), which is bear market behavior, it's a seasonally weak period, and SPX has open gaps at 1,174, 1,143, and 1,138. Oil prices and economic data will continue to move the market.

There are many important economic reports next week, which should generate a great deal of volatility, in the seasonally low volume market: Mon: None, Tue: Factory Orders, Consumer Confidence, and FOMC Minutes, Wed: Revised Q2 GDP & GDP Chain Price Deflator, and Chicago PMI. Thu: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending, ISM Index, and Auto Sales. Fri: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Hourly Earnings.

The Dow Industrials were hit hard by high oil prices recently, and closed below 10,400 Friday, while Nasdaq held up relatively well. If oil prices top next week, DIA calls (and puts on some oil stocks) may be buys on pullbacks. Also, there are several Dow components that were hit particularly hard recently.

Charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Overview section.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.

In The News:

Yahoo! News: Top Stories

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AP - Most Americans sorely knew it already, but now it's official: The country is in a recession, and it's getting worse. Wall Street convulsed at the news and a fresh batch of bad economic reports tanking nearly 680 points. With the economic pain likely to stretch well into 2009, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday he stands ready to lower interest rates yet again and to explore other rescue or revival measures.

Obama picks Gates, Clinton for foreign policy team (AP)

AP - Barack Obama announced a national security team Monday headed by Hillary Rodham Clinton, who fought him long and bitterly for the presidency, and Robert Gates, the man who has been running two wars for George W. Bush striking choices by a president-elect who declared he wanted "strong personalities and strong opinions."

Bush uses final 50 days in office to tout legacy (AP)

AP - President George W. Bush says history will judge him, but he is getting his own crack first. Bush is using his final 50 days in office to tout his legacy, hoping to leave a lasting impression of overshadowed progress. On Monday, World AIDS Day, Bush was heralded for his leadership in fighting the disease, a point that even his Democratic critics readily concede.

Police: Jennifer Hudson's estranged relative arrested in shooting deaths (AP)

AP - Police arrested the estranged brother-in-law of Jennifer Hudson on Monday in the deaths of the entertainer's mother, brother and young nephew, taking him from a prison where he had been held on a suspected parole violation.

India demands strong action from Pakistan (AP)

AP - India demanded Monday that Pakistan take "strong action" against those behind the deadly Mumbai attacks, and Washington pressured Islamabad to cooperate with the investigation.

Palin implores Ga. Republicans to back Chambliss (AP)

AP - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin urged Georgia voters to back Sen. Saxby Chambliss in Tuesday's runoff in an election eve appeal that underscored her popularity within the Republican Party and the GOP's efforts to stave off erosion of its shrinking Senate numbers.

Parents: Slain anchorwoman was sexually assaulted (AP)

AP - A television anchorwoman killed in her home had been sexually assaulted and beaten so badly in a suspected burglary that her jaw shattered and she broke a hand while trying to fend off her attacker's blows, her parents said Monday.

1 in 5 young adults has personality disorder (AP)

AP - Almost one in five young American adults has a personality disorder that interferes with everyday life, and even more abuse alcohol or drugs, researchers reported Monday in the most extensive study of its kind.

Man says God ordered him to ram vehicle at 100 mph (AP)

AP - A man who rammed his truck into a woman's vehicle on a highway early Friday told authorities he crashed into her while going more than 100 mph because God told him "she needed to be taken off the road."

Burress appears in court, has bail set at $100,000 (AP)

AP - Taken to court in handcuffs, Plaxico Burress posted $100,000 bail on weapons possession charges Monday as a frenzy grew around the case of the Giants star receiver who accidentally shot himself in a nightclub.

Obama names Clinton, Gates to lead foreign policy (Reuters)

Reuters - U.S. President-elect Barack Obama named former rival Hillary Clinton as secretary of state on Monday and said Robert Gates would remain defense secretary in a national security team charged with recasting America's leadership role in the world.

Dow loses 679.95 as economy, Bernanke revive fear (Reuters)

Reuters - Stocks tumbled on Monday as signs of a deepening economic slump around the world erased much of last week's sharp gains, with banks and retailers among Wall Street's biggest casualties.

India demands Pakistan act decisively on Mumbai attack (Reuters)

Reuters - India demanded Pakistan take decisive action over deadly attacks in Mumbai it said were carried out by militants from its nuclear-armed rival, while the West urged cooperation to ease tension.

Bush calls flawed Iraq intelligence biggest regret (Reuters)

Reuters - President George W. Bush said the biggest regret of his presidency was flawed intelligence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and told ABC "World News" in an interview airing on Monday that he was unprepared for war when he took office.

U.S. in recession, Europe backs spending hikes (Reuters)

Reuters - The U.S. economy has been in a recession for a year, the nation's business cycle arbiter declared on Monday, while European leaders vowed to step up public spending to try to cushion a deepening downturn.

House to push $500 billion stimulus bill (Reuters)

Reuters - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi met leading governors on Monday to discuss the size and shape of an economic stimulus package that one Democratic aide said was likely to cost around $500 billion.

Alabama mayor arrested on corruption charges (Reuters)

Reuters - Federal authorities arrested the mayor of Birmingham, Alabama, on Monday in a corruption probe surrounding a sewer bond debt that could lead to the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Thai protesters consolidate hold on airport (Reuters)

Reuters - Thai protesters prepared to end their three-month occupation of the Prime Minister's office on Monday to consolidate their grip on the main airport ahead of a court verdict that could dissolve the elected government.

Hawkish Obama names Clinton as top diplomat (AFP)

AFP - Barack Obama on Monday nominated Hillary Clinton to be his "tough," "smart" secretary of state as his former foe vowed to give her all to steer America through a storm of international crises.

Mumbai attacks: India demands Pakistan take 'strong action' (AFP)

AFP - India on Monday formally accused "elements" in Pakistan of being behind the devastating Islamic militant attacks in Mumbai and demanded that Islamabad take "strong action".

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