Your Worst Enemy To Successful Investing - The Media

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Your Worst Enemy To Successful Investing - The Media

Your Worst Enemy To Successful Investing - The Media

How do you make your investment decisions and where do you get your information? If you're like most of the people I know, you look to the experts.

That's fine, however it's important to be aware that for every expert, there's an opinion and for every opinion there's an expert. I have a friend who says that opinions are like noses: everyone has one but you wouldn't live in anyone else's nose!

Around the first of the year, along with the New Year's resolutions, come the New Year predictions for what will be hot and what will not. As if that isn't enough to produce a massive case of information indigestion, now we have the cable financial shows with pretty much the opinion of the hour.

What this is producing is a frenzy of buy and sell activity for stocks in general, and now for mutual funds as well. I don't think this approach serves either the investors in particular or the funds in general.

The big problem with this for mutual fund investors is that all the experts are recommending different funds. It might be one thing if experts had a solid basis for their perspective. If they did, then you would think their recommendations would line up and they'd all be touting the same thing.

But they don't and they aren't. Oh sure, each one of them can make a good case for their pick. But so can the next "expert." And usually both of them won't be right (if either of them is). So, where's the value in this for you? Beats me.

Another problem with this approach is that many experts recommend different funds at different times, and, in an effort to be in the hot fund, investors keep moving from fund to fund.

In the same breath, the experts are telling us to invest for the long term. Well, I can't figure out how to do both: be in the latest hot fund, and hold what I've got for the long haul.

The downside of all of this for the funds is that sometimes a fund touted as the hot one to be in attracts so much investment attention (i.e., money) that it grows beyond its original intention. At that point, it loses its direction and the very thing that made it strong is sacrificed. And guess what happens to the performance?

So, in the midst of all the hawking and hype for this fund or that, what's an investor to do to make intelligent choices?

For myself and my clients I use a trend tracking methodology, which identifies long-term trends in various markets. I research funds for stability and reliability as well as current performance. Then, when our trend indicator signals a Buy, we select our mutual funds based on momentum figures for various time periods to arrive at the most promising fund(s) to use for this cycle.

This gives us a head start and sometimes, weeks after we've bought a fund, I see it written up in financial papers as being one of the best performers.

Does this approach always put us in the number one fund? Maybe not. But we are almost always in funds that are doing very, very well. And do we get in at the bottom and out at the very top? Again, maybe not.

However, I can tell you that, using this methodology, my clients and I followed the sell signal we got in October, 2000, and were safely invested in solid money markets when the stock market crashed and burned.

Is this approach for you? It depends on how much adrenaline rush you like when you watch your investments. Personally, I fulfill my thrill quotient with other things in life and enjoy sleeping at night when it comes to my investments.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped hundreds of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: http://www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

In The News:

Yahoo! News: Top Stories

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AP - The reality that the nation is indeed in recession and that the downturn may well be prolonged sent Wall Street plunging Monday, hurtling the Dow Jones industrials down nearly 700 points and wiping out more than half of last week's big gains. All the major indicators fell more than 7 percent, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index down nearly 9 percent.

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AP - Barack Obama announced a national security team Monday headed by Hillary Rodham Clinton, who fought him long and bitterly for the presidency, and Robert Gates, the man who has been running two wars for George W. Bush striking choices by a president-elect who declared he wanted "strong personalities and strong opinions."

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AP - Jennifer Hudson's estranged brother-in-law has been arrested in Illinois in the deaths of the singer's mother, brother and 7-year-old nephew.

India demands strong action from Pakistan (AP)

AP - India demanded Monday that Pakistan take "strong action" against those behind the deadly Mumbai attacks, and Washington pressured Islamabad to cooperate with the investigation.

Palin implores Ga. Republicans to back Chambliss (AP)

AP - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin urged Georgia voters to back Sen. Saxby Chambliss in Tuesday's runoff in an election eve appeal that underscored her popularity within the Republican Party and the GOP's efforts to stave off erosion of its shrinking Senate numbers.

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AP - A television anchorwoman killed in her home had been sexually assaulted and beaten so badly in a suspected burglary that her jaw shattered and she broke a hand while trying to fend off her attacker's blows, her parents said Monday.

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AP - Almost one in five young American adults has a personality disorder that interferes with everyday life, and even more abuse alcohol or drugs, researchers reported Monday in the most extensive study of its kind.

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AP - A man who rammed his truck into a woman's vehicle on a highway early Friday told authorities he crashed into her while going more than 100 mph because God told him "she needed to be taken off the road."

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AP - Taken to court in handcuffs, Plaxico Burress posted $100,000 bail on weapons possession charges Monday as a frenzy grew around the case of the Giants star receiver who accidentally shot himself in a nightclub.

Obama names Clinton, Gates to lead foreign policy (Reuters)

Reuters - U.S. President-elect Barack Obama named former rival Hillary Clinton as secretary of state on Monday and said Robert Gates would remain defense secretary in a national security team charged with recasting America's leadership role in the world.

Dow loses 679.95 as economy, Bernanke revive fear (Reuters)

Reuters - Stocks tumbled on Monday as signs of a deepening economic slump around the world erased much of last week's sharp gains, with banks and retailers among Wall Street's biggest casualties.

India demands Pakistan act decisively on Mumbai attack (Reuters)

Reuters - India demanded Pakistan take decisive action over deadly attacks in Mumbai it said were carried out by militants from its nuclear-armed rival, while the West urged cooperation to ease tension.

Bush calls flawed Iraq intelligence biggest regret (Reuters)

Reuters - President George W. Bush said the biggest regret of his presidency was flawed intelligence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and told ABC "World News" in an interview airing on Monday that he was unprepared for war when he took office.

U.S. in recession, Europe backs spending hikes (Reuters)

Reuters - The U.S. economy has been in a recession for a year, the nation's business cycle arbiter declared on Monday, while European leaders vowed to step up public spending to try to cushion a deepening downturn.

House to push $500 billion stimulus bill (Reuters)

Reuters - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi met leading governors on Monday to discuss the size and shape of an economic stimulus package that one Democratic aide said was likely to cost around $500 billion.

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Reuters - Thai protesters prepared to end their three-month occupation of the Prime Minister's office on Monday to consolidate their grip on the main airport ahead of a court verdict that could dissolve the elected government.

Alabama mayor arrested on corruption charges (Reuters)

Reuters - Federal authorities arrested the mayor of Birmingham, Alabama, on Monday in a corruption probe surrounding a massive sewer bond debt that has forced Jefferson County to the brink of bankruptcy.

Hawkish Obama names Clinton as top diplomat (AFP)

AFP - Barack Obama on Monday nominated Hillary Clinton to be his "tough," "smart" secretary of state as his former foe vowed to give her all to steer America through a storm of international crises.

Mumbai attacks: India demands Pakistan take 'strong action' (AFP)

AFP - India on Monday formally accused "elements" in Pakistan of being behind the devastating Islamic militant attacks in Mumbai and demanded that Islamabad take "strong action".

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